The nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998 marked a paradigm-shift in the nuclear policy of both countries with far reaching regional and global consequences For the first time ever, two states other than the five acknowledged nuclear weapon states openly declared themselves de facto nuclear powers, thereby challenging the existing international non-proliferation regime. As the change in nuclear policy by the two second generation nuclear proliferants India and Pakistan towards an overt build-up of nuclear forces is so far unique in the global nuclear set-up, this event generates many new questions for academic research This paper, based on research project on this theme, tries to fill in some of the gaps by focusing on the effects of this new policy on the bilateral interaction between these to arch rivals.

India’s Draft Nuclear Doctrine Revisited
Mohamed Badrul Alam

With the nuclear explosion conducted by India in 1998 (to be subsequently followed up by its neighbour, Pakistan), the nuclear debate in the Indian sub-continent has again moved to the front burner. Although India tested a nuclear device, what it termed as a ”peaceful nuclear explosion,” for the first time in 1974, India has now proclaimed itself to be a nuclear state with a nuclear military doctrine. It is no coincidence that this shift occuned in the 1990s, a period of economic liberalisation and globalisation, and the period in which India rose as a regional military power. In light of India’s nuclear policy that evolved since its independence in 1947, my paper will evaluate and examine the nuclear doctrine that India envisaged in 1999. What will be the outcome of such a doctrine from a strategic and tactical sense? What is the doctrine’s impact in the regional sector as well as in the international scene? Will the doctrine provide a’ window of opportunity’ or window of vulnerability’ for military and political planners? Is there ever a possibility for the emergence of a nuclear non-proliferation regime in South Asia? This paper will attempt to provide answers to the above questions in addition to forecasting a probable scenario for the immediate future

 

The Kashmir Conflict: Structural and Expected Utility Assessments
Siddharth Swaminathan and Jacek Kugler

This study assesses prospects for peace between India and Pakistan using both structural and expected utility perspectives. The territorial status of Kashmir is the main source of contention between India and Pakistan and has emerged as one of the most enduring crisis in international politics. India and Pakistan have fought two wars (1947-48 and 1965) in attempting to gain control over the territory. Currently India controls two-thirds of the state of Jammu and Kashmir while Pakistan controls a third of the territory (referred to as Pakistan occupied Kashmir). The resolution of the Kashmir crisis has never been more important than it is today given the developmental priorities facing the two relatively poor nations.

Power transition theory (Organski and Kugler 1980; Tammen et. al. 2000; Lemke 2002) provides a consistent theoretical framework from which to analyze the conflict between India and Pakistan over the status of Kashmir. Specifically, we use the multiple hierarchy model proposed by Lemke (2002) to analyze the structural dynamics of long-term relations and the likelihood of conflict between a dominant nation (India) that preserves the status quo over Kashmir, and a dissatisfied challenger (Pakistan) that is seeking to overturn the status quo, within the context of the South Asian local hierarchy.

The expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 1985; Bueno de Mesquita and Stokman 1995; Bueno de Mesquita 1997) has been used effectively to identify solutions to extraordinarily complex situations of crisis bargaining. Using the expected utility model of decision-making, we forecast potential solutions to the Kashmir crisis. In addition to forecasting solutions, the model can be used to identify the stability of these solutions. The combination of long-term trends, identified by power transition theory, with the forecasts identified by the expected utility model provides academics and policy makers with a thorough understanding of the Kashmir conflict as well as the policy options that can be used to resolve this crisis (Kugler and Zagare 1990).