Panel 15 papers

The State and Prospects of Democracy in South Asia
Vanhanen

This paper will be based on the author’s new comparative study of democratization, in which the hypothesis according to which the level of democratization depends on the relative degree of resource distribution in a society is tested by empirical evidence covering 170 contemporary states. The variables and preliminary results of this new research project will be introduced and briefly discussed, after which attention will be focused on South Asian countries. The state and prospects of democracy in South Asia are analysed and evaluated in the comparative perspective of the global study. Each South Asian country is discussed separately. The purpose is to explore why the degree of democratization varies so much in South Asia. Why are some South Asian countries democracies and why the attempts of democaratization have failed in some other countries? Further, to what extent are the global explanatory factors used in this study capable to explain the variation of democratization in South Asia and what countries deviate clearly from the general pattern? What local, temporary or accidental factors may have affected the success or failure of democratization in particular countries. In the end, rough predictions on the chances and prospects of dernocarcy in particular countries will be presented.

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